Sunday, January 11, 2004

Re: What goes around comes around

The Indian economy as you say is really booming and rightly there is a very optimistic atmosphere everywhere. But, how long do you think it will last? I hope it is not just a bubble like the ".com" era that will burst in the coming few years. What then will India do? And China is always a looming threat. When you can get it for x percent cheaper in China, why not go there? It might even get to the point sometime in the future where India outsources to China!

The job scene here for the IT industry is looking quite bleak. And the tech guys are not happy. I constantly see angry posts on message boards about all the jobs going to India. I've read them as far back as 2001. It wasn't as common then, but now it is quite widespread. Back then, it was mostly complaints about tech support - How the accents were affecting communication. Now, they are training Indians to talk in an American accent and even written communication is being "Americanized".

From a personal perspective, I look at myself as very much an Indian and think from an Indian point of view. From this regard, I am quite pleased with what has happened. India (and other developing countries) are finally getting their day in the sun. I agree totally with what Rahul said about how the third world countries have been affected by globalization in a negative way. The farmers in the richer countries are compensated regardless of how well their crop does. The government makes it happen - so naturally they have more power than the other developing nation farmers. It seems that when globalization is affecting them in a positive way, its great, but when the tide turns, they start to complain. The developing nations have complained as well, but since the developed nations have more power, they will do something about it... Like the US has reduced the number of H1B's.

But from what I've read, it seems that the jobs being outsourced are not the greatest jobs in the world. It seems that it is the more repetitive manual labor that is getting pushed to India. Of course this is a generalization, but that is the impression I get. The call center phenomenon for example. Would you really consider working there? It is essentially tele marketing. Even medical transcriptions etc... not very "intellectually stimulating" work. The IT jobs too - they are mostly tech support. And it is not the case that companies over here are completely moving offshore. Part of their IT deparment might have shifted, but they still have local devs. Correct me if I am wrong. This is just a feel I am getting.

What is going to happen is the salaries over here is going to go down. Obvisously, not to the level of the comparable Indian rates. But relatively they will definitely come down. It has already started to happen. The IT proffession will not look as glamorous as before. It will be harder to get jobs, but that's the way it is. That's what globalization does.

My 2 cents.

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